Why States Fail and How States Recover – ANALYSIS
Somalia and its twin Somaliland are prototypes of states that fail and states that recover. The difference between Somalia and Somaliland is the difference between a peace owned and a rent-seeking peace. Local ownership is but one aspect of the conditions for state recovery.
The Middle East in Crisis: A View from Israel
DAVID SPEEDIE: I'm David Speedie, director of the program on U.S. Global Engagement at the Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs. This is another in our series of Ethics in Security bulletins and I'm delighted to welcome today back to the Carnegie Council, Charles Freilich.
Joining Forces in South China Sea Defense Procurement
In mid-2014, the People’s Republic of China deployed an oil rig, protected by Chinese coast guard vessels, into waters claimed by Vietnam. Prior to this, the Chinese tried to prevent the resupply of Philippine Marines based on the Second Thomas Shoal in March 2014. Hence, buoyed by an economy that fuels its regional military preponderance, Beijing appears determined to realize its ambition of annexing the South China Sea and its territories.
Tackling the Islamic State Group May Require a Softer Approach on Social Media in Malaysia and Indonesia
In response to the rise in Indonesian and Malaysian fighters joining the extremist Islamic State group (IS), Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur have taken action to criminalise membership. The Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI), the nation’s top Muslim clerical body, also released a statement that it was haram, or forbidden, for Muslims to participate in Islamic State group activities. Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak has also issued a strongly worded statement condemning IS for its actions, which ‘run counter to Islamic faith, culture and to common humanity’.
Israel’s cyber Iron Dome
While Israel’s security establishment is currently debating the political and military assessments and lessons of the war in the Gaza Strip in July-August 2014, known as “Operation Protective Edge,” there is a consensus on the widening spectrum and increasing sophistication of cyberthreats.
China’s Debt Dilemma: Deleveraging While Generating Growth [Part 1]
Much of the media coverage of China’s economy suggests that the country is headed for a financial crisis. China’s mountain of debt is decried, local government finances are labeled menacing, and a property bubble is called disastrous. But this picture is misleading. While China has serious debt problems, with prudent macroeconomic policies and productivity-enhancing structural reforms, the challenges should be manageable if underlying fiscal issues and growth-related reforms are addressed.
China’s Debt Dilemma: Deleveraging While Generating Growth [Part 2]
The Risks Behind the Numbers
While such aggregate numbers make for good headlines, they are not particularly helpful for assessing the risks associated with shadow banking. There is much more to the story.
An implication of the term “shadow banking” is that diverse and distinct forms of nonbank credit can be grouped together under the same heading and thought of in the same way. In reality, each form of credit exhibits a dramatically different risk profile. Pointing to the riskiness of one form of shadow banking (usually trust products or wealth management products) and then citing the overall amount of shadow banking gives a misleading perception of the magnitude of the risks.
China’s Debt Dilemma: Deleveraging While Generating Growth [Part 3]
LONG-TERM OUTLOOK: STRUCTURAL REFORM
Looking at China as a whole, alarmist rhetoric around the country’s short-term debt outlook overstates the system’s vulnerabilities, and the coming property correction is mostly an issue for real production rather than the financial system. That means that while there are likely to be defaults and a rise in nonperforming loans—legitimate concerns for investors in China—it is difficult to see how the situation could deteriorate so much that it would lead to a systemic financial crisis and derail the economy.
China’s Debt Dilemma: Deleveraging While Generating Growth [Part 4]
NOTES
1 Wang, “Three Big Questions and the Most Important Chart,” UBS Macro Keys, January 2014.
2 That China’s debt is relatively high is not particularly surprising for a country with such a high savings rate and a bank-dominated financial system, both of which are traits associated with high debt.
UN Summit Can Accelerate Momentum to a New Approach to Climate Change
World leaders are meeting Tuesday at the United Nations for a summit that is intended to set the stage for global negotiations later this year in Lima and next year in Paris, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the threat of global climate change. The negotiations are at an important crossroad.