Turkey’s Game-Changing Election

How might the election affect Turkey’s international relationships, especially with the West?

A single-party AKP government would continue Turkey’s recent efforts to recalibrate its foreign policy. Following a string of post–Arab Spring policy failures and its growing regional isolation, Ankara has shown a willingness to improve its relationships with some of its key regional and Western allies.

Regionally, Turkey started to normalize its ties with Saudi Arabia, as illustrated by the visit Erdoğan paid to Saudi King Salman in March 2015 and Turkey’s political support for the Saudi-led operation against Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Turkish leadership had also greatly scaled back its heavy criticism of the Egyptian government of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi—until a court in Egypt sentenced the country’s deposed president Mohamed Morsi to death in May 2015.

Looking West, Ankara concluded an important agreement with Washington to train and equip Syrian opposition members and opened up a Turkish air base for use by armed U.S. drones. More recently, Turkey’s government confirmed its willingness to start negotiations with the EU on deepening the country’s economic integration with Europe.

But a more permanent improvement of Turkey’s relationships—with its Western partners in particular—will depend on urgently needed improvements to Turkey’s democratic practices and the rule of law.

An AKP-HDP coalition government could accelerate this process of democratic reform, especially as the settlement of the Kurdish problem will depend on the adoption of a large-scale democratization package.

An AKP-MHP coalition, however, may be less conducive to such an outcome. The inherently more nationalistic structure of such a pairing may also be an impediment to resolving the division of Cyprus between Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots. On this issue, a window of palpable opportunity seems to have emerged with the April 2015 election of Mustafa Akıncı as the leader of the Turkish Cypriots.

Whatever the result of the forthcoming vote in Turkey, the country’s political landscape is perhaps becoming less predictable than it has been during the last twelve years, with major consequences both at home and abroad. Turkey’s June 7 election is one to watch.