Indonesian Presidential Election: Will Social Media Forecasts Prove Right?
Synopsis
Social media support for Indonesian presidential candidates are being used as indicators of possible eventual victory. However, the use of these tools presents certain challenges for analysts when relying on them to inform decision-making.
Pakistan’s Home-grown Terrorism Threat: War Beyond 2014
The upsurge in terrorist violence in Pakistan this month indicates the trajectory of its home-grown terrorism by Islamist insurgents well beyond 2014. Besides a strong military response to win the fight against militants, the political leadership must take ownership of the war and demonstrate strong political will.
A New Cold War?
Synopsis
The growing tensions around the world, including in East and Southeast Asia, are reminiscent of the old power play between the great powers. Are we headed towards a new Cold War?
ASEAN as a Model for Central Asia
Synopsis
Central Asia remains the only region in the world that does not have a regional organisation. Efforts by external actors at fostering regionalism have so far had limited success. Can ASEAN be a model for the Central Asian region?
Dubious Deterrence in the East China Sea
Synopsis
During his recent visit to Tokyo, President Obama declared that the US-Japan alliance covers the contested Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. Unfortunately, the president's deterrent strategy towards Beijing will place the US in a nightmarish predicament should either Japan or China initiate hostilities against the other.
Indonesia-Philippines Agreement: Lessons for South China Sea Claimants
Synopsis
The successful conclusion of long-dormant negotiations between Indonesia and the Philippines over maritime boundaries holds key lessons for claimant states of disputed waters in the South China Sea.
Managing South China Sea Disputes: The Legal Basis for Cooperation
Synopsis
Recent exchanges over South China Sea issues continue to focus primarily on sovereignty over islands and jurisdiction over adjacent marine areas. But coastal state rights are balanced by obligations, such as to protect the marine biosphere, especially in a semi-enclosed sea.
Xi Jinping’s ‘Monroe Doctrine’: Rebuilding the Middle Kingdom Order?
Synopsis
Xi Jinping’s declaration that China should strive to become a “true maritime power” is redolent of a Chinese version of the Monroe doctrine or the old Middle Kingdom order. The recent issues in the East and South China seas demonstrate China’s incremental pursuit of its ambition to be the dominant maritime power in the region.
UMNO’s Terengganu Crisis: Managing Legacy and Reform
Synopsis
The recent crisis in the state of Terengganu signalled the strong undercurrent of the old political legacy in Malaysia’s ruling party UMNO. The extent of its impact in Terengganu as well the wider political arena deserves close scrutiny.
Whose Sovereignty over the Paracels? A Response
Synopsis
Rather than getting into an unproductive debate over matters of detail, this response to the critique of an earlier commentary looks more at the deleterious impact of sovereignty arguments on managing the South China Sea and its resources.