The EU Must Prepare for a Cold Peace With Russia
For more than two decades, the main goal of the EU’s Russia policy was to help the country transform: from autocracy to democracy, from planned economy to market economy. The guiding vision was the “common European house”―the idea that Russia would gradually integrate into the structures that the EU had built over decades.
What’s at Stake in Japan’s Election
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe surprised the country and dissolved the lower house of parliament on November 21, 2014, calling a snap general election for December 14. In a new Q&A, James Schoff explains Abe’s move and analyzes the issues at stake. Schoff says a strong result for Abe’s party could boost the prime minister’s political capital as he pushes for key reforms, and it might spark realignment among the opposition.
Obama Is Back in Asia
U.S. President Barack Obama heads back to Asia a year after he canceled a similar trip and missed two regional summits. With stops in China, Myanmar, and Australia, Obama’s visit will include the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, the East Asia Summit, and a G20 leaders meeting.
U.S.-Arab Counterterrorism Cooperation in a Region Ripe for Extremism
Many Arab governments are fueling the very extremism they purport to fight and looking for U.S. cover. Washington should play the long game.
Upcoming Event : Developing a Chinese Approach to Public Diplomacy
EVENT DETAILS
DATE Thursday, October 16, 2014
TIME 10:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. HKT (UTC +8)
LOCATION Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy
LANGUAGE English
MODERATOR Pang Xun
SPEAKER Ingrid d’Hooghe
CONTACT Xiaojiao Li
+86 01 82150178 ext 803| xli@ceip.org
REGISTER TO ATTEND
As China’s economy has grown, the country’s cultural impact on the world has also expanded. Beijing’s recent soft power initiatives include broadening the size of Chinese state media’s overseas audience, increasing the worldwide number of Confucius Institutes to 1,000 by 2020, and bidding to host the 2022 Winter Olympics. Through these efforts, China is seeking to refine its global image and establish the country as a key driver of cultural and social trends. How successful has this approach been for enhancing China’s reputation around the world and what remains to be done?
China’s Debt Dilemma: Deleveraging While Generating Growth [Part 1]
Much of the media coverage of China’s economy suggests that the country is headed for a financial crisis. China’s mountain of debt is decried, local government finances are labeled menacing, and a property bubble is called disastrous. But this picture is misleading. While China has serious debt problems, with prudent macroeconomic policies and productivity-enhancing structural reforms, the challenges should be manageable if underlying fiscal issues and growth-related reforms are addressed.
China’s Debt Dilemma: Deleveraging While Generating Growth [Part 2]
The Risks Behind the Numbers
While such aggregate numbers make for good headlines, they are not particularly helpful for assessing the risks associated with shadow banking. There is much more to the story.
An implication of the term “shadow banking” is that diverse and distinct forms of nonbank credit can be grouped together under the same heading and thought of in the same way. In reality, each form of credit exhibits a dramatically different risk profile. Pointing to the riskiness of one form of shadow banking (usually trust products or wealth management products) and then citing the overall amount of shadow banking gives a misleading perception of the magnitude of the risks.
China’s Debt Dilemma: Deleveraging While Generating Growth [Part 3]
LONG-TERM OUTLOOK: STRUCTURAL REFORM
Looking at China as a whole, alarmist rhetoric around the country’s short-term debt outlook overstates the system’s vulnerabilities, and the coming property correction is mostly an issue for real production rather than the financial system. That means that while there are likely to be defaults and a rise in nonperforming loans—legitimate concerns for investors in China—it is difficult to see how the situation could deteriorate so much that it would lead to a systemic financial crisis and derail the economy.
China’s Debt Dilemma: Deleveraging While Generating Growth [Part 4]
NOTES
1 Wang, “Three Big Questions and the Most Important Chart,” UBS Macro Keys, January 2014.
2 That China’s debt is relatively high is not particularly surprising for a country with such a high savings rate and a bank-dominated financial system, both of which are traits associated with high debt.
Five Hidden Risks of U.S. Action Against the Islamic State
U.S. President Barack Obama’s four-pronged strategy of air strikes, support to local proxies, defense against the Islamic State’s attacks through intelligence and counterterrorism, and humanitarian assistance leaves many unanswered questions. It’s hardly a clear articulation of the sort of long-term, holistic strategy needed to deny the Islamic State the fertile ground it needs to thrive. The approach is fraught with trade-offs, risks, and hidden costs that need to be addressed.