Declaration of a State of Islam ‘Caliphate’: Will discord among Indonesian jihadists breed violence?
Synopsis
The declaration of a State of Islam Caliphate by the leader of the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS) Abu Bakar al-Baghdadi on 29 June 2014 has drawn mixed reactions from the Indonesian jihadi community. Will this discord lead to possible violence?
Indonesian Presidential Election 2014: Tipping Point?
Synopsis
While the presidential election looks like it was Joko Widodo’s to lose just two months earlier, recent polls have painted a strikingly different picture with Prabowo Subianto fast closing the gap. Which candidate is more likely to tip the scale to victory?
Abe Doctrine: US-Japan Alliance, International Law and ASEAN
Synopsis
Japan PM Shinzo Abe’s speech in Singapore highlighted three key principles for its foreign policy - uphold intenational law, strengthen US-Japan security relations and enhance relations with ASEAN. They signal Japan’s intention to be a contributor of peace in the region.
Changing Power, Changing Interests: Freedom of Navigation in South China Sea
Synopsis
By placing the oil rig HD-981 in Vietnam’s proclaimed EEZ off the disputed Paracel Islands, China has profoundly affirmed its assertive policy of “monopolising” the South China Sea. The security order in the Sea is in flux, and the time is right for a fundamental reassessment of key trends there.
China’s James Shoal Claim: Malaysia the Undisputed Owner
Synopsis
Malaysia owns James Shoal, a submerged feature that is within its continental shelf. Being one thousand nautical miles from Hainan, James Shoal is outside the continental shelf of China; it is also outside the continental shelf of Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei and Indonesia.
North Korea: Key to a China Nightmare?
Synopsis
North Korea may not be a nightmare for China. Instead, it will provide an opportunity for China and the United States to work together in preventing a possible nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula. China should take a strong initiative to restart the Six Party Talks.
Indonesia’s Post-Election Energy Policy: Growing Economic Nationalism?
Synopsis
Indonesia’s energy policy in the next administration is likely to come under, pressure for change. While both presidential candidates offer rather similar energy policies, will they pursue nationalistic and protectionist policies should they get elected?
China, Vietnam and the Paracels: Time for a Way Out?
Synopsis
A long-term standoff between China and Vietnam over the HYSY 981 drilling rig is detrimental to bilateral relations. Diplomatic wisdom is needed so that both countries can adjust their tactics to bring the situation under control.
Xisha (Paracel) Islands: A Rejoinder
Synopsis
Purely based on the application of international law of the sea, and notwithstanding the sovereignty dispute over the Paracels, the Haiyang Shiyou 981 oil rig was transported by China recently to a location deep inside the EEZ and continental shelf of Vietnam.
The BRICS Bank: Now Comes the Hard Part
No sooner had the dust settled from the World Cup than Brazil played host to the five leaders of the BRICS countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. An immediate outcome of the Fortaleza summit was the formation of the New Development Bank, a development finance institution to rival the World Bank. The group also announced a currency reserve pool as an alternative to the IMF. Done right, both initiatives could change the institutional landscape for multilateral development financing.