A New Approach to Problem-solving in the South China Sea
China's rebuff of U.S. Secretary of State Kerry's proposal that it freeze "provocative" acts in the South China Sea, made at the recent Asean Regional Forum meeting in Naypyidaw, Myanmar, was both predictable and predicted. In the face of an unyielding and recalcitrant China, Kerry's quixotic effort laid bare the bankruptcy of America's approach toward reducing regional tensions in the South China Sea. Clearly, the U.S. and its Asian partners -- not least the protagonists of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations -- need a better strategy.
Indonesia’s Presidential Election 2014: Enter the Next Big Fight
Synopsis
An inconclusive presidential election based on quick count results reflects the new uncertainty in Indonesia. The next big fight now building up is for the control of Golkar, the second largest party. Will a restructuring of the political landscape lead to stronger government?
Reinterpretation of Japan’s Constitution: The Limits of Abe’s Ambitions
Japan recently reinterpreted its Constitution to allow for collective defence with its allies. Notwithstanding Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s strong political position, the subsequent protests and decline in Mr Abe’s approval rating will likely constrain his efforts to amend the limits placed by the Constitution.
Resolution of Bangladesh-India Maritime Boundary: Model for South China Sea Disputes?
Synopsis
In a rare ‘good news’ story for regional maritime security, an international court has established the maritime boundary between Bangladesh and India. Could this be a model for the South China Sea disputes?Israel and Saudi Arabia: Forging Ties on Quicksand
Synopsis
Distrust of US-led efforts for a negotiated end to the Iranian nuclear crisis, animosity towards the Muslim Brotherhood, a shared determination to defeat Al Qaeda, and questions about the reliability of the US as an ally have persuaded Saudi Arabia and Israel to go public with their tacit alliance despite the absence of diplomatic relations between the two erstwhile enemies.
Southeast Asian fighters in the new “caliphate”: Implications for Indonesia’s militant Islamist movement
Synopsis
The growing number of Indonesian fighters involved in Syria’s civil war has security implications for their country when they return. Will the fighters there now have an impact on local dynamics and revitalise the militant Islamist movement?
A new “caliphate” in the Middle East: Is there an Abu Sayyaf-ISIS Link?
Synopsis
A video of a purported member of the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) pledging support to the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) surfaced recently. With an apparent spike in ASG-related activities, this is interpreted as evidence of convergence between the groups. However, the localised factors that motivate ASG factions should not be ignored.
Declaration of a State of Islam ‘Caliphate’: Will discord among Indonesian jihadists breed violence?
Synopsis
The declaration of a State of Islam Caliphate by the leader of the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS) Abu Bakar al-Baghdadi on 29 June 2014 has drawn mixed reactions from the Indonesian jihadi community. Will this discord lead to possible violence?
Indonesian Presidential Election 2014: Tipping Point?
Synopsis
While the presidential election looks like it was Joko Widodo’s to lose just two months earlier, recent polls have painted a strikingly different picture with Prabowo Subianto fast closing the gap. Which candidate is more likely to tip the scale to victory?