Turkey’s Game-Changing Election

What long-term impacts will Turkey face after the vote?

How bumpy the road is for Turkey in the months and years to come will depend in part on the composition of the new parliament.

If the AKP does not manage to win a three-fifths majority, Erdoğan could still trigger a referendum by forming a coalition—with the HDP, for example. In general, Turkey has not had long-term stability under multiparty governments, and the emergence of a coalition may be the harbinger of more elections to come.

If the HDP fails to clear the 10 percent hurdle, the Kurdish movement—without any representation in the parliament—may move to unilaterally implement its agenda of autonomous rule for Turkey’s southeast. The real risk is that popular support might shift from the HDP to more radical elements of the Kurdish movement. Such a scenario could trigger a confrontation with the government, against the backdrop of rising regional instability.

Even if the AKP wins a three-fifths majority and the president decides to go for a referendum on introducing an executive presidency, Turkey will be in the grips of another year or so of intense political campaigning about changing its current political system. That is itself a very divisive issue.