Turkey’s Game-Changing Election

What’s the expected election result?

The final result is too close to call, as small, last-minute shifts in electoral preferences could make all the difference.

On average, recent opinion polls suggest that the ruling AKP has the support of 43 percent of the electorate. The main opposition CHP is polling at approximately 26 percent, the nationalist MHP at around 17 percent, and the pro-Kurdish HDP at close to 10 percent of the votes (see figure 1).

Seat simulations show that minute variations for the HDP around the 10 percent threshold produce very different postelection scenarios (see figure 2).

According to one simulation, the HDP clears the 10 percent hurdle and secures representation in the parliament. The AKP does not reach a simple majority of 276 seats and has to form a coalition government.

In a second scenario, the HDP falls short of the 10 percent threshold. The AKP gets a simple majority in the parliament and is able to form a single-party government, but the party falls short of the three-fifths majority of seats needed to introduce a referendum on amending the constitution.

In a third outcome, the HDP again falls short of the 10 percent threshold. The AKP reaches a three-fifths majority, having won more than 330 seats, and is therefore able to hold a constitutional referendum.

In a fourth possibility, the HDP wins 10 percent of the vote and enters the parliament, while the AKP secures a simple majority. If this happens, the AKP can form a single-party government but will not be able to propose a constitutional referendum on its own.