The EU Must Prepare for a Cold Peace With Russia

 

 

 

MAINTAINING COOPERATION WHERE POSSIBLE

Despite the conflict, the EU and Russia will―and should―still pursue a broad range of relations. In some areas, such as Eastern Europe, there will be strong disagreement; in others, constructive ties will be maintained.

 

European economic cooperation with Russia will continue. Energy will dominate Russian exports as it has in the past, and the EU will remain a very important customer for many years to come. Russia needs Western technology and consumer goods. The two sides’ economic interdependence will inject a healthy dose of interest-based realism into the relationship.

 

And if there is a chance to achieve some practical agreements between the EU and the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), the sides should attempt to identify areas of possible consensus. But if Russia continues to see the EEU as a political tool to reintegrate post-Soviet countries under Moscow’s dominance, the chances are low that the EU and the EEU will find mutually beneficial agreements that follow an economic logic.

 

The EU should continue to welcome Russian investment, and it should be interested in economic exchanges with Russia. However, the bloc must make sure that these economic activities fully comply with EU norms and that they are not used as tools of Russian foreign policy against EU interests. Economic interconnectedness is the goal, but not at the price of compromising on core principles.

 

The EU and Russia should pursue interest-based cooperation on political issues as well. But there should be no illusions: on many international issues, there is disagreement with Russia. In Syria, Russia insists on supporting President Bashar al-Assad―militarily, diplomatically, and by shielding him from condemnation and from action authorized by the UN Security Council. And on Iran, Russia continues to work with the five permanent Security Council members plus Germany (the P5+1), not because Moscow wants to please the West, but because there is a lot at stake for Russia.

 

Although EU-Russian cooperation in many areas will continue, the vision of a broad, comprehensive partnership will have to be laid to rest for a while. How long that pause lasts will depend on internal developments in Russia. The general expectation is that Putin is going to stay in power for some if not many more years, and most experts agree that he is unlikely to change his attitude toward the West.

 

KEEPING THE DOOR OPEN FOR RUSSIA

Even as comprehensive partnership is on the back burner, the EU should uphold its vision of Russia’s modernization. The EU should keep the hope that one day, Russia might welcome its full integration into structures of European and global governance. A Russia that joins the European house would be very much in the EU’s interest; after all, this is what the EU has worked toward for more than two decades. The current conflict with Russia is a major setback for the EU, a result of years of failed efforts to encourage the country’s modernization and integration.

 

The EU should be cautious not to frame the confrontation as a conflict with the Russian people. While pushing back against the regime through sanctions, the EU should work hard to engage with Russian civil society through measures such as exchange programs and visa facilitation.

 

The EU should not dismiss the possibility of Russia making a U-turn and should prepare for that. But the incentives the EU may lay on the table to achieve such a U-turn cannot include any compromise over the sovereign rights of other countries. After all, ignoring the rights and interests of the countries in between the EU and Russia is one of the mistakes the bloc has made in the past.

 

STEPPING UP EU-U.S. COOPERATION

While EU capitals have taken a lead in the West’s response to the Ukraine crisis, the United States is a welcome and needed partner as the EU develops a strategic response to the new challenges in Eastern Europe. The United States is the most powerful player on the global scene and shares many of the EU’s values. Only by joining forces do Brussels and Washington stand a chance to influence Russia’s international behavior. And only if the United States backs up EU soft power with credible hard power can the two set clear joint redlines for Russia.

 

Whether on sanctions or on support for Eastern European countries, a coordinated Western effort is much more effective than leaving individual players to pursue their own specific priorities. Keeping a joint approach therefore remains vital, and cooperation and coordination with the United States must be one of the top priorities for EU policymakers.

 

So far, both sides have worked well together, thanks not least to a tightly coordinated approach between leaders in Washington and Berlin. Both the EU and the United States have an interest in bringing cooperation on Eastern Europe as well as on other issues to a more durable, broader, strategic level. Revamping EU-U.S. summits by involving representatives not only of the EU institutions but also of the EU member states could be a promising way ahead.