Indonesia’s Trajectory 2014-2019: An Insider’s Forecast

 

 

 

What about ASEAN?

Conscious of the rise of new major powers, the authors argue that ASEAN remains relevant, but needs to “develop not only a modality of internal relations, but also a modality to accommodate the presence of major countries in the region”. Again, pragmatism and national interest dominate the discussion here:

Indonesia is thankful for the peace and stability that ASEAN has created, but now wishes ASEAN to adapt itself to a changing global environment where major powers will begin to play a more visible role in the region, notably China which “carries on recording the highest economic growth”.

In the face of these realities, and aware of Indonesia’s need for investment from neighbouring countries, the authors argue that Indonesia needs to promote its own economic interests first and look towards securing its food, energy and resource security in the future, as it will be one of the most important resource-bases in the world. While Indonesia needs to maintain its friendly links with neighbours and allies, the “protection of the national interest among other countries’ businesses” is emphasised.

 

Indonesia’s Core Interests

The authors accept the fact that Indonesia will be faced by unforeseen developments that are new to the country. The country’s ‘Threat Map’ is wide as it is: the internet revolution, increased urbanisation, rise of local ethnic and religious forms of communal solidarity and the threat of religious extremism all pose challenges to the maintenance and perpetuation of the idea of a singular Indonesian republic.

Holding back these centrifugal forces can only be accomplished by a singular state apparatus that caters and fulfils the rising demands and expectations of an increasingly demanding political public.

It is to that end that the authors insist that securing Indonesia’s economic needs is paramount, for Indonesia must achieve economic take-off and be a self-sustaining state for it to remain together. Indonesia must not only overcome the middle-income trap but its political elite need to ensure that its wealth remains in the hands of Indonesians, and not predatory foreign capital.

It is in that context that the maritime policy, the agricultural policy and the energy policy are discussed and linked to the broader goal of nation-building and state-power consolidation.

 

All in all, the release of this book is both timely and important. It is timely as it comes at the beginning of the Jokowi-Kalla period of leadership, and gives us some insight into the worldview, values and ambitions of the country’s technocratic elite. It is also important as it reminds us that the policy direction that this new government will take is likely to be focused on domestic needs, putting national interest above all else.

 

Farish A. Noor is an Associate Professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.