Between Two Elections: Whither US-Myanmar Relations?

 

 

 

Long-Term View Needed

The reform process will be a long-term enterprise as Myanmar tries to move on from 50 years of military rule. However, there is an increasingly vociferous chorus casting doubt on the reforms’ prospects. Even among the low hanging fruits of political prisoners and media freedoms, the government’s track record is increasingly seen as patchy. Furthermore, various issues such as constitutional reform and sectarian strife are not simple two-sided tug-of-wars but rather multi-sided contestations involving an unholy mix of entrenched interests, political ambitions, shifting battle lines and grassroots factors.

 

It is amidst this tangled web of interests and high-stakes poker in both nations’ capitals that the US has to calibrate its presence in Myanmar. The opprobrium and regime-change approach of the 1990s and 2000s failed to bring about change whereas the current approach of engagement with both carrot and stick offers a better chance for the US to help foster change in the country. As echoed by a number of veteran Myanmar watchers, the US needs to envision outcomes in the long run in order to remain relevant and exercise influence.

 

Naypyidaw should also not squander international goodwill. Myanmar now has the best chance to develop and address the needs of its inhabitants. Foot dragging, personal interests and out-dated notions of identity could reverse these gains. Although the Tatmadaw continues to be the gorilla in the room, the political landscape has evolved since 2011 with a redrawing of interests and differences. President Thein Sein, besieged by an assertive parliament, ambitious politicians, unconvinced critics and the Tatmadaw recalibrating its loyalties and interests, needs to demonstrate stronger political will and leadership to ensure that his reforms survive beyond his tenure. The Myanmar political movers also need to think long term or risk condemning their country to another round of isolation and misery.

 

2015 Outlook

The coming year will be important for both Myanmar and US-Myanmar relations. The 1990 election and recent events in neighbouring Thailand cast long shadows on what 2015 holds for Myanmar. Bearing in the mind the decades of isolation, Myanmar’s progress and recent role in hosting the 27th Southeast Asian Games and 2014 ASEAN Summit demonstrated its capabilities for change. The US is a crucial partner in Myanmar’s reform attempt, and needs to continue being a constructive partner with the long-term view in mind. The future awaits as Myanmar turns the page.

 

 

Kyaw San Wai is a senior analyst and Christabelle He is a research analyst at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.