Booming Synergies in Sino-Russian Natural Gas Partnership
Abstract
A central debate in the study of energy geopolitics concerns the relative importance of the Sino-Russian energy alliance and the lack of the long awaited deal in natural gas. The deadlock in natural gas is all the more puzzling when contrasted to the two countries’ flourishing ties in oil. I explore these developments by comparing the outcomes of the two deals and highlighting the distinctiveness of oil trade vis-à-vis gas trade. I subsequently describe the interplay of different domestic, regional and international policy changes currently taking place, which may pave the way for a breakthrough in the two countries’ gas talks in 2014. I then turn to two scenarios, one optimistic and the other pessimistic, to highlight the increasingly binding forces and some residual fault-lines in the relationship. I conclude by assessing the implications that the two countries’ increased energy synergies might have for the broader world.
U.S. Needs To Plan For The Day After An Iran Deal
Advocates of the effort to reach a negotiated settlement with Iran over its illicit nuclear activities have emphasized the benefits an agreement could bring by peacefully and verifiably barring Tehran from developing nuclear weapons. Skeptics, meanwhile, have warned of the risks of a “bad deal,” under which Iran’s capabilities are not sufficiently rolled back.
Thai Crisis: What Next After Martial Law?
Synopsis
The martial law just declared by Thailand’s military has brought the country’s political crisis to a crossroads. Will a military coup resolve the current impasse once and for all, or will it only serve to deepen it?
Electing Indonesia’s Next President: King or Kingmaker?
Synopsis
Indonesia’s fifth presidential election post-Suharto is taking place under the shadow of Sukarno. Whether it will be Jokowi or Prabowo as president, the kingmaker behind the throne has to be reckoned with. Will there be a new post of prime minister?
India’s Foreign Policy under BJP: Pragmatism and Proactive Diplomacy?
Synopsis
Despite the party’s Hindu-tinged nationalistic zeal, the BJP’s election manifesto emphasises pragmatism and proactive diplomacy in India’s external relations. The new government needs to translate its foreign policy aims effectively to mend and renew relations with the US, Russia and the immediate neighbourhood.
Putin Sees China as a Gas-Hungry Ally
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping are likely to find they have more in common than ever as they meet this week, starting today in Shanghai for a Sino-Russian summit and later in St. Petersburg for an economic forum. Both men are coming under sharp criticism from the West: Putin for his annexation of Crimea and Xi for his forays into the contested waters of the South China Sea. For all the fascinating and potentially consequential strategic conversations that may take place between these two men, the one to look out for will be whether they conclude a much-delayed energy deal to pipe huge amounts of Russian natural gas to China starting in 2018.
Securing US Influence in Asia Pacific: The Military Angle
Synopsis
Although economic and diplomatic domains of the US pivot dominate discussions, the military angle cannot be ignored. This dimension consists of two pillars: Air Sea Battle to offset China’s Anti-Access and Area Denial capabilities and closer military relations with allies in the Asia Pacific.
ASEAN SMEs: Same-Day Delivery Services for More Growth?
Synopsis
Global corporations are competing by offering same-day delivery services. ASEAN’s small and medium enterprises (SMEs) should adopt the same strategy for their own benefit as well as for ASEAN as a whole.
Arctic LNG: The Energy on East Asia’s Doorstep
Synopsis
Arctic LNG projects offer East Asian countries a chance to diversify their energy portfolios and export their offshore technology and tankers to new markets. This could also lead to wider cooperation between East Asia and Arctic countries.
Myanmar’s Rising Buddhist Nationalism: Impact on Foreign Investors
Synopsis
Amidst rising Buddhist nationalism in Myanmar, domestic tension is beginning to affect foreign investment. The call to shun Qatar-based Ooredoo’s telecommunication services in Myanmar displays economic nationalism that should worry risk analysts.